{"as_of_date":"2026-04-05","regime":"Calm","stress_score":1.31,"data_ok":false,"algos":{"dollar_wrecking_ball":{"meta":{"id":"dollar_wrecking_ball","name":"Dollar Wrecking Ball","tagline":"Pure USD strength thesis","description":"Bets on USD dominance during global tightening cycles. Long USD, short EM FX and commodity exporters. Activates when DXY breaks out with funding stress.","icon":"💵","color":"#6366f1"},"recommendations":[{"direction":"Watch","asset":"DXY / UUP","why_now":"USD is range-bound. No funding stress detected. Monitor for breakout.","invalidation":"None active — watchlist only.","risk_level":"None","confidence":0.21,"stop_guidance":"No position.","time_horizon":"Monitoring","signal_strength":"Weak"}]},"metals_dislocation":{"meta":{"id":"metals_dislocation","name":"Metals Dislocation","tagline":"Ride the liquidation sequence","description":"Trades the metals cycle explicitly: short silver/copper early in liquidation, rotate to long gold late when policy response risk rises. High conviction in Stress/Dislocation regimes.","icon":"⚡","color":"#f59e0b"},"recommendations":[{"direction":"Neutral","asset":"Metals complex","why_now":"No metals liquidation signal. Risk-on environment; metals may drift higher.","invalidation":"Metals liquidation flag fires.","risk_level":"None","confidence":0.24,"stop_guidance":"No active position.","time_horizon":"Monitor","signal_strength":"Inactive"}]},"carry_unwind":{"meta":{"id":"carry_unwind","name":"Carry & Unwind","tagline":"Credit carry in calm, systematic unwind on stress","description":"Harvests credit carry (HYG, LQD) in Calm regime. Systematically unwinds into cash/T-Bills as stress builds. Risk-adjusted carry extraction.","icon":"📈","color":"#8b5cf6"},"recommendations":[{"direction":"Long","asset":"HYG (High Yield Bond ETF)","why_now":"Calm regime: credit carry is attractive. Funding stress minimal, spreads compressing.","invalidation":"SOFR-FF widens above 10 bps or VIX breaks 20.","risk_level":"Low","confidence":0.52,"stop_guidance":"Exit on daily close below 20-day MA.","time_horizon":"2–4 weeks","signal_strength":"Active"},{"direction":"Long","asset":"LQD (Investment Grade ETF)","why_now":"IG credit offers carry with lower vol than HY. Build laddered position in calm.","invalidation":"HYG declines more than 1% in a day.","risk_level":"Low","confidence":0.45,"stop_guidance":"1% trailing stop.","time_horizon":"3–6 weeks","signal_strength":"Active"}]},"vol_expansion":{"meta":{"id":"vol_expansion","name":"Vol Expansion","tagline":"Buy vol when VIX is building","description":"Tail hedge overlay. Buys volatility (VIX calls, UVXY) when stress score accelerates even in low-VIX environments. Protects against sudden spikes.","icon":"📊","color":"#ef4444"},"recommendations":[{"direction":"Neutral","asset":"VIX / Vol instruments","why_now":"VIX 0.0 — low and stable. No vol expansion signal. Save powder.","invalidation":"VIX z-score rises above 1.0 or stress score accelerates.","risk_level":"None","confidence":0.24,"stop_guidance":"No position.","time_horizon":"Monitor","signal_strength":"Inactive"}]},"crisis_alpha":{"meta":{"id":"crisis_alpha","name":"Crisis Alpha","tagline":"Gold + TLT defensive portfolio","description":"Activates at Stress Event and above. Concentrated in gold (GLD), long-duration Treasuries (TLT), and cash. Designed to generate positive returns when everything else falls.","icon":"🛡️","color":"#ec4899"},"recommendations":[{"direction":"Hold Cash / Wait","asset":"Crisis Alpha portfolio — inactive","why_now":"Calm regime. Crisis Alpha is designed for stress scenarios. Hold cash and wait for activation.","invalidation":"Regime shifts to Tightening or above.","risk_level":"None","confidence":0.28,"stop_guidance":"No position. This algo activates at Stress Event.","time_horizon":"Standby","signal_strength":"Inactive"}]},"sequence_timing":{"meta":{"id":"sequence_timing","name":"Sequence Timer","tagline":"Trade each causal stage as it activates","description":"Detects which stage of the causal sequence is active (Funding → Dollar → Metals → Credit → Policy) and provides the precise trade for that stage. Most tactical of all algos.","icon":"🎯","color":"#06b6d4"},"recommendations":[{"direction":"Watch","asset":"All — no sequence active","why_now":"Sequence detector at Stage 0: All Clear. No funding stress detected.","invalidation":"SOFR-FF widens above 5 bps.","risk_level":"None","confidence":0.21,"stop_guidance":"No position.","time_horizon":"Monitor","signal_strength":"Inactive","stage":0}]},"base":{"meta":{"id":"base","name":"Liquidity Stress","tagline":"Regime-driven macro defensive","description":"Core algo. Detects overnight funding stress propagating into credit and cross-asset dislocations. Defensive in stress, opportunistic in calm.","icon":"💧","color":"#10b981"},"recommendations":[{"direction":"Long","asset":"HYG (High Yield ETF)","why_now":"Funding stress is minimal; credit spreads compressing. Carry is attractive.","invalidation":"SOFR-FF spread widens above 10 bps or VIX breaks above 20.","risk_level":"Low","stop_guidance":"Close on daily close below 20-day moving average.","time_horizon":"2–4 weeks","confidence":0.56,"data_caveat":"Confidence reduced — SOFR, VIX, HYG, GOLD, SILVER, COPPER data unavailable"},{"direction":"Long","asset":"Copper (HG=F)","why_now":"Risk appetite is healthy; industrial metals benefit from low-stress environment.","invalidation":"DXY rises more than 1% in a day or metals liquidation flag triggers.","risk_level":"Low","stop_guidance":"1.5% trailing stop from entry.","time_horizon":"1–3 weeks","confidence":0.42,"data_caveat":"Confidence reduced — SOFR, VIX, HYG, GOLD, SILVER, COPPER data unavailable"},{"direction":"Neutral","asset":"Gold (GC=F)","why_now":"No safe-haven bid warranted. Gold may drift lower as risk-on prevails.","invalidation":"Stress score rises above 25 or gold-DXY divergence turns positive.","risk_level":"Low","stop_guidance":"No active position — monitor for regime shift.","time_horizon":"Ongoing","confidence":0.28,"data_caveat":"Confidence reduced — SOFR, VIX, HYG, GOLD, SILVER, COPPER data unavailable"}]}},"algo_list":[{"id":"base","name":"Liquidity Stress","tagline":"Regime-driven macro defensive","description":"Core algo. Detects overnight funding stress propagating into credit and cross-asset dislocations. Defensive in stress, opportunistic in calm.","icon":"💧","color":"#10b981"},{"id":"dollar_wrecking_ball","name":"Dollar Wrecking Ball","tagline":"Pure USD strength thesis","description":"Bets on USD dominance during global tightening cycles. Long USD, short EM FX and commodity exporters. Activates when DXY breaks out with funding stress.","icon":"💵","color":"#6366f1"},{"id":"metals_dislocation","name":"Metals Dislocation","tagline":"Ride the liquidation sequence","description":"Trades the metals cycle explicitly: short silver/copper early in liquidation, rotate to long gold late when policy response risk rises. High conviction in Stress/Dislocation regimes.","icon":"⚡","color":"#f59e0b"},{"id":"carry_unwind","name":"Carry & Unwind","tagline":"Credit carry in calm, systematic unwind on stress","description":"Harvests credit carry (HYG, LQD) in Calm regime. Systematically unwinds into cash/T-Bills as stress builds. Risk-adjusted carry extraction.","icon":"📈","color":"#8b5cf6"},{"id":"vol_expansion","name":"Vol Expansion","tagline":"Buy vol when VIX is building","description":"Tail hedge overlay. Buys volatility (VIX calls, UVXY) when stress score accelerates even in low-VIX environments. Protects against sudden spikes.","icon":"📊","color":"#ef4444"},{"id":"crisis_alpha","name":"Crisis Alpha","tagline":"Gold + TLT defensive portfolio","description":"Activates at Stress Event and above. Concentrated in gold (GLD), long-duration Treasuries (TLT), and cash. Designed to generate positive returns when everything else falls.","icon":"🛡️","color":"#ec4899"},{"id":"sequence_timing","name":"Sequence Timer","tagline":"Trade each causal stage as it activates","description":"Detects which stage of the causal sequence is active (Funding → Dollar → Metals → Credit → Policy) and provides the precise trade for that stage. Most tactical of all algos.","icon":"🎯","color":"#06b6d4"}]}