{"as_of_date":"2026-05-19","stress_score":4.0,"regime":"Calm","sub_scores":{"vol":0.0,"credit":0.0,"dollar":2.77,"metals":1.24,"funding":0.0},"top_drivers":[{"factor":"dollar","details":"DXY 1d chg=0.16%, z=0.42","contribution":2.77},{"factor":"metals","details":"Gold=-0.33% Silver=-1.05% Cu=-0.13%","contribution":1.24},{"factor":"funding","details":"SOFR-FF spread z=N/A","contribution":0.0}],"recommendations":[{"direction":"Long","asset":"HYG (High Yield ETF)","why_now":"Funding stress is minimal; credit spreads compressing. Carry is attractive.","invalidation":"SOFR-FF spread widens above 10 bps or VIX breaks above 20.","risk_level":"Low","stop_guidance":"Close on daily close below 20-day moving average.","time_horizon":"2–4 weeks","confidence":0.56,"data_caveat":"Confidence reduced — SOFR, VIX, HYG, BKLN data unavailable"},{"direction":"Long","asset":"Copper (HG=F)","why_now":"Risk appetite is healthy; industrial metals benefit from low-stress environment.","invalidation":"DXY rises more than 1% in a day or metals liquidation flag triggers.","risk_level":"Low","stop_guidance":"1.5% trailing stop from entry.","time_horizon":"1–3 weeks","confidence":0.42,"data_caveat":"Confidence reduced — SOFR, VIX, HYG, BKLN data unavailable"},{"direction":"Neutral","asset":"Gold (GC=F)","why_now":"No safe-haven bid warranted. Gold may drift lower as risk-on prevails.","invalidation":"Stress score rises above 25 or gold-DXY divergence turns positive.","risk_level":"Low","stop_guidance":"No active position — monitor for regime shift.","time_horizon":"Ongoing","confidence":0.28,"data_caveat":"Confidence reduced — SOFR, VIX, HYG, BKLN data unavailable"}],"narrative":"As of 2026-05-19. LiquidityWatch Stress Score: 4.0/100 — Regime: **Calm**.\n\nMarket liquidity conditions appear orderly. Funding markets are functioning normally, the dollar is stable, and there are no signs of forced asset liquidation.\n\nThe primary drivers of today's score are: Dollar tightness (DXY) (DXY 1d chg=0.16%, z=0.42) contributed 2.8 points. Metals liquidation pressure (Gold=-0.33% Silver=-1.05% Cu=-0.13%) contributed 1.2 points. Funding stress (SOFR–Fed Funds spread) (SOFR-FF spread z=N/A) contributed 0.0 points.\n\nRecommendations are unchanged from the previous session.\n\nContinue monitoring funding markets. Any sudden widening in SOFR-FF spreads or DXY breakout above daily thresholds will be the early warning signal.","raw_indicators":{"sofr":{"value":3.55,"date":"2026-05-15","available":true},"fed_funds":{"value":3.63,"date":"2026-05-15","available":true},"sofr_ff_spread_bps":{"value":-8.0,"available":true},"dxy":{"value":99.1240005493164,"date":"2026-05-19","available":true,"pct_change_1d":0.1556},"gold":{"value":4537.7001953125,"date":"2026-05-19","available":true,"pct_change_1d":-0.3251},"silver":{"value":76.26499938964844,"date":"2026-05-19","available":true,"pct_change_1d":-1.0484},"copper":{"value":6.263999938964844,"date":"2026-05-19","available":true,"pct_change_1d":-0.1275},"hyg":{"value":79.54000091552734,"date":"2026-05-18","available":true,"pct_change_1d":0.0},"vix":{"value":17.81999969482422,"date":"2026-05-18","available":true},"metals_liquidation_flag":false},"data_health":{"score":100.0,"status":"Healthy","missing":[],"last_full_data":"2026-05-15"},"delta":{"stress_score_change":2.26,"regime_changed":false,"previous_regime":"Calm","previous_score":1.74},"sequence":{"current_stage":0,"stages_fired":[],"stage_labels":{"0":"All Clear","1":"Funding Stress","2":"Dollar Tightening","3":"Loans Weakening","4":"Credit Weakening","5":"Metals Liquidation","6":"Volatility / Policy Response"},"days_since_stage_1":null,"sequence_intact":true,"hidden_credit_risk":false,"description":"No stress sequence active — all clear.","session_region":"ASIA","session_state":"LIVE"},"velocity":{"stress_acceleration":-2.73,"stress_trend":"falling","score_percentile_30d":45.2,"alert_velocity":false},"position_ladder":{"regime":"Calm","portfolio_size":1000.0,"positions":[{"ticker":"GDXJ","pct":25,"direction":"Long","note":"junior gold miners — leveraged to gold ATH, lagging metal, best risk/reward","dollar_amount":250.0,"live_price":115.47,"approx_shares":2.1651},{"ticker":"SLV","pct":20,"direction":"Long","note":"silver outperforms gold in risk-on; higher beta play","dollar_amount":200.0,"live_price":69.94,"approx_shares":2.8596},{"ticker":"FCX","pct":15,"direction":"Long","note":"Freeport-McMoRan — 2-3x copper leverage vs ETF, direct operational upside","dollar_amount":150.0,"live_price":60.5,"approx_shares":2.4793},{"ticker":"EWZ","pct":15,"direction":"Long","note":"Brazil ETF — weak dollar + copper/iron ore = EM rally","dollar_amount":150.0,"live_price":36.74,"approx_shares":4.0827},{"ticker":"HYG","pct":15,"direction":"Long","note":"HY carry — core credit exposure","dollar_amount":150.0,"live_price":79.54,"approx_shares":1.8858},{"ticker":"CASH","pct":10,"direction":"Hold","note":"dry powder for regime shift","dollar_amount":100.0,"live_price":null,"approx_shares":null}],"price_source":"live"}}