Funding stress → dollar → metals → credit → policy response. Updated daily.
The dashboard shows model-layer recommendations for the current regime. The Claw Survival Fund operates one layer deeper and can override the base model when a specific pattern fires. On April 3, a metals-liquidation sequence triggered (gold -1.9%, silver -3.5%, copper -1.1% with DXY up) before the daily score updated. The fund repositioned into UUP/TLT/JDST as a tightening override. This is by design: the fund trades the leading sequence, not the lagging score.
Target allocation for $1,000 based on current regime signals.
| Ticker | Direction | Target % | $1,000 | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDXJ | Long | 25% | $250 | junior gold miners — leveraged to gold ATH, lagging metal, best risk/reward |
| SLV | Long | 20% | $200 | silver outperforms gold in risk-on; higher beta play |
| FCX | Long | 15% | $150 | Freeport-McMoRan — 2-3x copper leverage vs ETF, direct operational upside |
| EWZ | Long | 15% | $150 | Brazil ETF — weak dollar + copper/iron ore = EM rally |
| HYG | Long | 15% | $150 | HY carry — core credit exposure |
| CASH | Hold | 10% | $100 | dry powder for regime shift |
Confidence-weighted. Auto-degraded when inputs unavailable. Not financial advice.
Funding stress is minimal; credit spreads compressing. Carry is attractive.
Invalidation: SOFR-FF spread widens above 10 bps or VIX breaks above 20.
⚠ Confidence reduced — SOFR, VIX, HYG, GOLD, SILVER, COPPER data unavailable
Risk appetite is healthy; industrial metals benefit from low-stress environment.
Invalidation: DXY rises more than 1% in a day or metals liquidation flag triggers.
⚠ Confidence reduced — SOFR, VIX, HYG, GOLD, SILVER, COPPER data unavailable
No safe-haven bid warranted. Gold may drift lower as risk-on prevails.
Invalidation: Stress score rises above 25 or gold-DXY divergence turns positive.
⚠ Confidence reduced — SOFR, VIX, HYG, GOLD, SILVER, COPPER data unavailable
As of 2026-04-03. LiquidityWatch Stress Score: 1.3/100 — Regime: **Calm**.
Market liquidity conditions appear orderly. Funding markets are functioning normally, the dollar is stable, and there are no signs of forced asset liquidation.
The primary drivers of today's score are: Dollar tightness (DXY) (DXY 1d chg=0.16%, z=0.20) contributed 1.3 points. Funding stress (SOFR–Fed Funds spread) (SOFR-FF spread z=N/A) contributed 0.0 points. Metals liquidation pressure (Gold=N/A% Silver=N/A% Cu=N/A%) contributed 0.0 points.
Recommendations are unchanged from the previous session.
Continue monitoring funding markets. Any sudden widening in SOFR-FF spreads or DXY breakout above daily thresholds will be the early warning signal.
Full stress score, causal sequence, velocity, raw indicators, and trade recommendations via REST API.
{
"as_of": "2026-04-04",
"stress_score": 1.31,
"regime": "Calm",
"sequence_stage": 0,
"data_health": "Healthy",
"velocity_trend": "stable"
}